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American Foreign Policy Council (8 July 2026)

Ilan I. Berman

Last month, a critical geopolitical contest took place in the South Caucasus, when voters in Armenia went to the polls to appoint a new government. The June 7th parliamentary election was about far more than the composition of that country’s legislature. Rather, it constituted a referendum of sorts on its economic and political future. 

For most of the post-Cold War era, Armenia had stayed deeply dependent on Russia, both politically and strategically. But over the past several years, under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s leadership, it has undertaken a more independent, sovereign course. This has included a long-overdue mending of fences with regional rival Azerbaijan, involvement in critical connectivity projects like the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP) and the Middle Corridor, and deepening ties with both Europe and the United States. 

These shifts have drawn Yerevan closer to the West. They have also challenged the influence of Russia and China, both of which have sought in recent years to dominate and direct Eurasian connectivity and trade.

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